U.S. shale oil production and trend estimation: Forecasting a Hubbert model
研究利用哈伯特曲线分析美国本土48州页岩油开采，结合价格、钻机数量等因素，发现美国页岩油已达峰值，可能面临全面下降。
Abstract Scarcity and growth analyses about energy include forecasting extraction rates of non‐renewable resources while taking into account technological progression. One mechanism, Moore's (1965) Law of technological improvement, encompasses experience enhanced steady cost reductions. Alternatively, synthesis technological change refers to unforeseen innovative breakthroughs. These trends relate to the Hubbert (1956, 1962) Curve of U.S shale oil extraction in the U.S. Lower 48 contiguous states. Price effects, drilling rigs and the price‐to‐drilling rig relationship are analyzed. Results show we are at peak U.S. shale oil, and could experience comprehensive decline. This implies Catton's (1982) “Age of Exuberance,” and “Carrying Capacity” drawdown.