Complex dynamics in a nonlinear duopoly model with heuristic expectation formation and learning behavior
研究了一个非线性双寡头模型，其中两家有限理性的企业使用不同的预测模型并学习更精确的模型，导致复杂动态和多重共存吸引子，对理解市场不稳定有帮助。
Abstract We develop a nonlinear duopoly model in which the heuristic expectation formation and learning behavior of two boundedly rational firms may engender complex dynamics. Most importantly, we assume that the firms employ different forecasting models to predict the behavior of their opponent. Moreover, the firms learn by leaning more strongly on forecasting models that yield more precise predictions. An eight-dimensional nonlinear map drives the dynamics of our approach. We analytically derive the conditions under which its unique steady state is locally stable and numerically study its out-of-equilibrium behavior. In doing so, we detect multiple scenarios with coexisting attractors at which the firms’ behavior yields distinctively different market outcomes.