全球能源市场的风险网络

Risk network of global energy markets

Energy Economics · 2023
被引 17
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

研究了全球68家能源企业间的极端不确定性关联,发现可再生能源子行业在疫情前后对其它子行业的不确定性传导最强,且同规模企业间关联度更高。

Abstract

This study evaluates extreme uncertainty connectedness among top global energy firms. The sample comprises of 68 firms from four energy-related subsectors (oil & gas, oil & gas related equipment and services, multiline utilities, and renewable energy). To provide an overview of tail connectedness, we construct a high-dimensional network between firms by utilizing a generalized error decomposition and a sparse vector autoregression framework with a latent common factor. Our empirical results indicate that between the four subsectors, the renewable energy subsector exhibits the highest uncertainty transmission to other underlying subsectors, primarily credited to an increased within-subsector idiosyncratic uncertainty before the COVID-19 crisis. After the burst of the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the higher connectedness, the role of the renewable energy companies in the spillover network is further intensified. The uncertainty connectedness demonstrates a time-varying trait. While the oil and gas subsector exhibits greater long-term linkages with the oil and gas related equipment and services subsector, the long-run dynamics exhibit a lower interconnectedness as compared to the short-run. Finally, there is an increased connectedness among companies operating in the same subsector with similar size, attributing to similarity and competition.

极端不确定性关联全球能源市场可再生能源尾部风险网络