Asymmetric effect of the oil price in the ecuadorian economy
研究了石油价格正负变化对厄瓜多尔GDP的非对称影响，发现油价下跌对产出的影响更大且更持久。
This paper aims to identify if there is an asymmetric response of the output to positive and negative changes in the price of oil. We take the case of Ecuador, an oil exporter but also an importer of derivates of the same commodity. We apply the local projections methodology to estimate this asymmetric response through state-dependence impulse response function. The results put in evidence that between the positive and negative variations of oil prices, those which affect the most to the Ecuadorian GDP are the negative ones. We also show that the persistence of the effect is higher when the oil price fall, rather than when there are positive variations. • There is an asymmetric response of the output to positive and negative changes in oil price. • The fall of oil prices causes more effect in the Ecuadorian output than the rise of prices of this commodity. • The dynamic response of GDP is more persistent with negative variations of prices than positive one. • When the oil prices rise, the real household's consumption and investment are the aggregate demand components that cause the growth of output (magnitude and persistence). • If the oil prices fall, the real investment, imports and exports contribute the persistence of response of output, following by real household's consumption.