The effects of rivalry on scientific progress under public vs private learning
研究竞争如何影响科学实验的持续时间和社会福利，比较实验结果公开与私下观察时的差异，发现当突破可行性不确定、突破罕见且实验产出频率低时，公开学习能促进更多实验和更高福利。
We offer a model of scientific progress in which uncertainty resolves over time. We show that rivalry leads to less experimentation, extending results for preemption games to experimentation with uncertain outcomes. We compare experimentation duration and welfare when experimental outcomes are publicly versus privately observable. We show that public learning can generate more experimentation and higher welfare when uncertainty about the feasibility of a breakthrough is large; breakthroughs are rare even when they are feasible; and experiments produce results infrequently. Our results shed light on recent criticism of the science system.