哪些错误认知会持续存在?

Which misspecifications persist?

Theoretical Economics · 2023
被引 13
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

通过演化模型研究哪些错误认知能持续存在:每代代理人用主观模型和上一代数据更新信念,能抵抗突变(即使模型更拟合数据但导致低收益)的稳态被刻画。

Abstract

We use an evolutionary model to determine which misperceptions can persist. Every period, a new generation of agents use their subjective models and the data generated by the previous generation to update their beliefs, and models that induce better actions become more prevalent. An equilibrium can resist mutations that lead agents to use a model that better fits the equilibrium data but induce the mutated agents to take an action with lower payoffs. We characterize which steady states resist mutations to a nearby model, and which resist mutations that drop a qualitative restriction such as independence.

误设模型演化均衡突变抵抗稳态选择