On track or not? Projecting the global Multidimensional Poverty Index
提出一个预测多维贫困的框架，基于75个国家的时间一致指标，评估各国在2015-2030年间将贫困发生率减半的进展，并讨论模型对设定减贫目标和评估轨迹变化的启示。
This paper proposes a framework for modelling projections of multidimensional poverty. We use recently published repeated observations of multidimensional poverty, based on time-consistent indicators, for 75 countries. We consider and evaluate different approaches to model these countries’ trajectories of poverty reduction. Our preferred model respects theoretical bounds, is supported by empirical evidence, and ensures consistency of our main measure with its subindices. In our empirical analysis we first use this approach to assess whether countries are on track to halve poverty incidence between 2015 and 2030 if recent trends continue – 51 are – before assessing the reasonableness of this target. Subsequently, we discuss implications of our modelling framework for computing projections under sustained efforts, setting poverty reduction targets, and the evaluation of trajectory changes. These implications mainly follow from the bounded nature of our outcome variables and are, therefore, applicable to a wide array of development indicators.