The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison
用一个多区域新凯恩斯模型比较欧元区和美国在COVID-19衰退中的经济表现，发现强制储蓄、需求复苏和大宗商品价格是解释两地经济活动与通胀差异的关键。
This paper compares the COVID-19 recession in the euro area (EA) and the US using an estimated multi-region New Keynesian macroeconomic model. To capture quarterly dynamics from 2020 onwards, we introduce relevant extensions such as ‘forced’ savings, extensive versus intensive employment margins, and trade in commodities as inputs to production and final demand. Transitory (‘forced’) savings are central to account for the behaviour of economic activity in both regions during the pandemic, which was strongly driven by private consumption, alongside shocks to domestic demand and foreign activity. The model highlights the importance of demand recovery and rising commodity prices for the inflation acceleration during 2021–22. EA inflation has a stronger supply component (including commodity prices) compared to a stronger demand component in the US.