House Bubbles, global imbalances and monetary policy in the US
用贝叶斯VAR模型分析美国住房价格泡沫的驱动因素，发现全球储蓄过剩冲击比货币政策冲击更持久、更强地催生泡沫，但2019年后的泡沫模式不同。
This paper examines the factors driving housing price exuberance in the United States, specifically the influence of expansionary monetary policies and the global saving glut. We employ medium scale Bayesian VAR and time-varying VAR models to estimate the effects of monetary policy and global saving glut shocks on US housing bubbles. We find that, prior to the Global Financial Crisis, the impact of the saving glut shock is more enduring, powerful, and rapid in generating housing bubbles compared to monetary policy shocks. However, the recent housing boom that commenced in 2019 demonstrates a different pattern. Our results suggest that both monetary policy and the global saving glut contribute to the increase in house prices. Counterfactual policy experiments validate this conclusion.