Employment Mismatches Drive Expectational Earnings Errors among Mozambican Graduates
基于莫桑比克毕业生工作转型的纵向调查，研究发现就业错配（如工作与专业不匹配）是导致预期收入与实际收入巨大差距的主要原因，约三分之二的预期误差可归因于此。
Abstract Biased beliefs about future labor-market earnings are commonplace. Based on a longitudinal survey of graduate work transitions in Mozambique, this study assesses the contribution of employment mismatches to a large positive gap between expected (ex ante) and realized (ex post) earnings. Accounting for the simultaneous determination of pecuniary and non-pecuniary work characteristics, employment mismatches are found to be material and associated with large earnings penalties. A decomposition of these expectational errors shows that around two-thirds are attributable to employment mismatches, suggesting job seekers systematically overestimate the ease of securing “good jobs.”