检验赫维茨期望效用理论

Testing Hurwicz Expected Utility

Econometrica · 2023
被引 7
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

推导出新的概率权重函数,通过两个实验检验赫维茨期望效用理论,发现模糊厌恶在不同不确定性来源间恒定,且与一阶风险厌恶正相关。

Abstract

Gul and Pesendorfer (2015) propose a promising theory of decision under uncertainty, they dub Hurwicz expected utility (HEU). HEU is a special case of α ‐maxmin EU that allows for preferences over sources of uncertainty. It is consistent with most of the available empirical evidence on decision under risk and uncertainty. We show that HEU is also tractable and can readily be measured and tested. We do this by deriving a new two‐parameter functional form for the probability weighting function, which fits our data well and which offers a clean separation between ambiguity perception and ambiguity aversion. In two experiments, we find support for HEU's predictions that ambiguity aversion is constant across sources of uncertainty and that ambiguity aversion and first order risk aversion are positively correlated.

Hurwicz期望效用α-最大最小期望效用概率权重函数模糊厌恶一阶风险厌恶