Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution
本文重新审视了过去25年美国菲利普斯曲线的平坦化现象，并探讨工资-价格螺旋引发通胀的可能性。通过比较不同计量模型，发现曲线存在非线性与断点，并基于此构建包含体制转换的哈罗德-明斯基宏观模型，该模型能同时产生工资主导和利润主导的分配循环，呈现复杂动态。
This paper reconsiders the flattening of the Phillips curve that has taken place over the last twenty-five years, together with the recent claim that a wage-price spiral could ignite an inflationary process. The two aspects are interrelated. The time-variation nature of the parameters plays a fundamental role in feeding a process of instability that may affect the reappearance of inflationary episodes. This paper first examines the extent of the U.S. Phillips curve flattening and nonlinearity by comparing the results of different econometric specifications and models. Based on these findings, the use of a regime-switching device, particularly studied by Richard Day, is proposed and applied to a Harrod–Minsky macro model. Three results are worth mentioning. The detection of nonlinearities in the U.S. Phillips curve leading to breaks in the curve; the ability of the model to generate robust bounded fluctuations, in which both Phillips curve loops and distributive loops can arise; the presence of both wage-led and profit-led distributive loops in the same model with different combinations of real and monetary parameters that can generate complex dynamics.