Sequencing the COVID‐19 Recession in the USA: What Were the Macroeconomic Drivers?
运用结构向量自回归模型，将美国COVID-19期间工业产出和通胀波动分解为总需求、总供给和不确定性冲击，发现不确定性冲击对产出下降影响最大，而2021年通胀主要由不确定性下降和不利供给冲击驱动。
Abstract We apply a structural vectorautoregressive analysis to decompose fluctuations in the growth rate of industrial production and inflation precipitated by the COVID‐19 pandemic in the USA into aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and uncertainty shocks. While all three types of shocks contributed to output and inflation dynamics, the surge in economic uncertainty contributed to the decline in output more strongly than aggregate demand or aggregate supply disruptions. In 2021, the decline in uncertainty and adverse aggregate supply shocks emerged to be similarly important in spurring inflation.