Does the Government Spending Multiplier Depend on the Business Cycle?
使用非线性两区制VAR模型研究政府支出乘数是否随经济周期变化，发现乘数在扩张期和衰退期差异不大，因为冲击后经济状态会收敛。
Abstract We investigate the state dependency of the government spending multiplier across the business cycle using a nonlinear two‐regime VAR model. We find little evidence that multipliers vary between expansionary and recessionary periods. This is because the state of the business cycle itself changes after government spending shocks and converges toward a similar state. This result holds true regardless of how we model the business cycle. Our analysis shows that assumptions about the economic state built into linear impulse response functions are the key driver of the state dependency reported elsewhere in the literature.