Overconfidence, misjudgment, and entry in experimental entrepreneurial markets: evidence from Panama
通过巴拿马实地实验，研究过度自信和误判如何影响人们进入赢家通吃市场的决策，发现过度自信主要推动已有创业网络的人开新公司，可能加剧不平等。
This paper investigates the influence of overconfidence and misjudgement of merit on the decision to enter a winner-take-all market. Through a lab-in-the-field experiment conducted in Panama’s dynamic and diverse entrepreneurial ecosystem, the study addresses a research gap by exploring the interplay between overconfidence, institutional factors, and entrepreneurial activities. The findings confirm the role of overconfidence as a determinant of market entry and reveal that overconfidence primarily empowers individuals already embedded in entrepreneurial net- works, regardless of their destructiveness. These results suggest that in the presence of weak institutions, overconfidence does not promote entrepreneurship but rather motivates those with pre-existing entrepreneurial networks to open new ventures. However, this situation has the potential to exacerbate inequalities, especially if these ventures make only marginal contributions to overall social output.