Continued Absence: A Case Study of EU Salience in the Swedish Parliamentary Election of 2022
研究了2022年瑞典议会选举中欧盟议题在政党竞选、选民投票和政府组阁中的显著性，发现尽管条件有利，欧盟仍是边缘议题。
Previous research suggests that the European Union (EU) has limited significance in Sweden. Political parties rarely address the EU during election campaigns, and few voters consider it a significant factor in their voting decisions. Media coverage of the EU is also infrequent. However, the 2022 election took place in a context where the EU's importance could be expected to be greater than usual, at least on the surface. Public's support for the EU increased following Brexit, causing former hard Eurosceptic parties to moderate their calls for Sweden's exit from the union (Swexit). This shift potentially opened up a debate on how the EU should function rather than questioning Sweden's membership. Additionally, the EU's critical role in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Sweden's upcoming EU presidency in the first half of 2023 could also generate interest in European issues. In summary, if the EU were to become more prominent on Sweden's political agenda, then the 2022 election would provide the opportunity. In light of the aforementioned context, this study aims to assess the extent to which the EU influenced the Swedish parliamentary election of 2022. Specifically, the article investigates the salience of the EU in three distinct aspects: party campaigns, voting behaviour and government formation. To achieve this, a mixed-method approach incorporating qualitative and quantitative methods is employed. The analysis involves examining election manifestos to evaluate the EU's presence in party campaigns, utilizing opinion poll data to comprehend the EU's significance in voters' electoral decisions and analysing the coalition agreement known as the Tidö agreement, between the newly established centre-right government and the previously hard Eurosceptic radical right Sweden Democrats, along with the government declaration submitted to the Riksdag, to capture the EU's importance in government formation. The findings indicate that despite the relatively favourable conditions for the EU to assume a more prominent role than previous elections, it remains a peripheral issue in Swedish politics. Building upon these findings, the article concludes with a discussion on the implications of the absence of EU politics in election campaigns and offers insights into how the new government's collaboration with the Eurosceptic Sweden Democrats may affect Sweden's stance towards the EU. In several regions of Europe, the significance of the EU as a political matter has grown over time (Carrieri, 2023) even though its salience is moderate compared with domestic issues such as, for example, immigration (Hoeglinger, 2016). Following both the Euro crisis and the refugee crisis, it is argued that the EU's role has faced further challenges, leading to a politicization of the matter (Hutter and Kriesi, 2019). Moreover, it is asserted that the emergence and electoral progress of the Eurosceptic radical right has intensified the conflict (Hutter and Grande, 2014). The increased politicization of the EU naturally impacts the level of voter engagement, and many researchers demonstrate how EU issue voting, a process where vote choice in national elections is influenced by attitudes to issues at the European level, has become an important aspect to understand voting behaviour (de Vries, 2010). Previous studies, hence, have emphasized that voting based on EU-related issues has become prevalent in domestic politics (de Vries and Tillman, 2011) and that national elections are progressively influenced by European factors (Jurado and Navarrete, 2021). On the surface, there are grounds to anticipate a substantial involvement of the EU in Swedish politics. Whilst it is challenging to quantitatively assess the extent of Europeanization in domestic public policies (Töller, 2010), it is undeniable that the EU exerts a considerable influence on national legislation. And the fact that a substantial portion of the country's legislative framework is directly or indirectly shaped by regulations at the European level underscores the significance of EU policies for political parties and voters. Furthermore, Swedish attitudes towards European co-operation have been increasingly positive. Since the early 2000s, there have been a greater number of individuals with favourable views towards the EU than those with negative opinions (approximately 20%–30% state that they have no opinion on the matter). Moreover, since 2017, an outright majority of individuals have expressed predominantly positive attitudes towards EU membership. Support has further increased following events such as the election of Trump, the Brexit process and Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Blombäck and Karv, 2023; M. Johansson and Lewander, 2023). In addition, research suggests that EU issue voting should be more widespread in countries like Sweden that are net contributors to EU funds (Jurado and Navarrete, 2021). Despite this, it is commonly believed that EU and European integration are issues of low priority amongst Swedish parties, media and voters in general, particularly during parliamentary elections. Previous analyses paint a discouraging picture. It is noted, for example, that political parties with a few exceptions (see, e.g., Aylott and Bolin, 2019, p. 1507) discuss EU-related issues to a very limited extent (Liljeqvist and Blomgren, 2018; Strömvik, 2016). Furthermore, it has been emphasized that the prevailing pro-European consensus amongst Swedish mainstream parties renders EU affairs a non-competitive issue in terms of vying for voter support (Persson et al., 2023). In addition to parties' lack of interest in politicizing the issue, research also indicates the relative absence of EU-related matters in media coverage, with Swedish media seemingly reducing its reporting on the EU. For example, Melchior's (2020) finds a two-thirds decrease in the number of correspondents stationed in Brussels since Sweden's accession to the EU in the mid-1990s, highlighting a comparatively poorer coverage than neighbouring Nordic countries and the media's approach to covering American politics. Furthermore, Strömvik (2020) finds that domestic legislative processes receive significantly more intense media coverage than corresponding EU legislation. By large, it seems as if media fails to convey the political divisions within EU politics. Consequently, it appears reasonable to conclude that there is an ‘essentially political silence about politics at the EU level’ (Strömvik, 2016). Given both parties' and media's lukewarm interest in the EU, it is hardly surprising that Swedish voters do not prioritize the EU highly. In fact, EU consistently ranks amongst the least important issues for voters in recurring election surveys. With the exception of the elections in 1991 and 1994, just before Sweden's accession to the EU in 1995, no more than 6% of voters have indicated that the EU is an important issue in their party choice. In the 2018 election, only 1% stated the EU as important (Oscarsson and Holmberg, 2020). For the reasons explicated in the introduction, however, one might expect the 2022 election to deviate from normal practices. The context of the 2022 election presented a potential increase in the significance of the EU. The aftermath of Brexit witnessed a rise in public support for the EU, leading previously staunch Eurosceptic parties to moderate their stance on Sweden's potential exit from the union, known as Swexit. This transformation in party positions created an opportunity for a discussion on the functioning of the EU rather than questioning Sweden's membership itself. Furthermore, the EU's crucial role in responding to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with Sweden's upcoming EU presidency in the first half of 2023, had the potential to generate interest in European issues. Consequently, the 2022 election offered a potential platform for the EU to gain more prominence on Sweden's political agenda. To assess the extent to which the favourable conditions influenced the significance of the EU in Swedish politics, a case study was conducted of the parliamentary election held on 11 September 2022, which took place less than 4 months before the start of the Swedish EU presidency. The outcome of the election led to the removal of the two-term Social Democratic-led government and the formation of a right-of-centre coalition. This shift became possible due to the mainstream right's decision to abandon the previous cordon sanitaire policy regarding the radical right Sweden Democrats. The newly formed government, consisting of the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, reached a comprehensive agreement with the Sweden Democrats (Aylott and Bolin, 2023). Whilst the three government parties have long been pro-European, the Sweden Democrats were previously in favour of exiting the EU. However, following the aftermath of Brexit, the Sweden Democrats moderated their criticism. Prior to the 2019 European Parliament election, the party dropped its demand for a referendum on EU withdrawal. Although the shift in stance may not be the central factor in the centre-right parties' change of attitude towards co-operating with the Sweden Democrats, it certainly facilitated it. The future prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, has previously, amongst other things, referred to the Sweden Democrats' stance on EU as an important reason why the party cannot be part of the government (Bolin, 2023). To assess the importance of EU in the Swedish parliamentary election of 2022, I employ a mixed-method approach where qualitative party data are combined with quantitative voter data to assess three aspects: parties' election campaigns, voter motivations and government formation. To assess the significance of EU-related issues during the election campaign, an analysis was conducted on the election manifestos of the eight parliamentary parties. This analysis provides a reasonable indication of the parties' focus and allocation of time on European matters, although it may not present a comprehensive picture (D. Braun, 2023). The analysis of election manifestos was facilitated using Taguette, an open-source qualitative analysis software (Rampin and Rampin, 2021). The coding process involves three steps. First, instances of the search term ‘eu*’ were identified. Any occurrences unrelated to the EU or Europe were excluded. In the second step, an inductive thematic process was employed to identify recurring themes (V. Braun and Clarke, 2006). This approach follows a bottom-up methodology, wherein instances of ‘eu*’ were read multiple times to assign them to different themes. Three general themes emerged. The most common theme involved descriptions of various aspects of politics and society. The second theme, referred to as proposals, comprised explicit or implicit mentions of the party's desired actions at the European level. Finally, the third theme, called attitude, encompassed instances where the party explicitly or implicitly expressed their stance towards the EU and its actions. In the third step, these three themes were further divided into various sub-themes to provide a more detailed assessment of the most prevalent issues related to the EU in the election manifestos. These themes are presented in the results section. In order to evaluate the involvement of the EU in the process of government formation, an analysis was conducted on the Tidö agreement, which represents the agreement between the incoming centre-right coalition and the Sweden Democrats, as well as the government declaration submitted to the Riksdag. The analysis followed a similar approach to the analysis of the election manifesto. In addition to the themes identified in the manifesto, there were instances that can be characterized as decision-making concerning the management of EU issues within the government. To assess the extent to which EU played a role in voters' party choice, data from the VALU exit poll were analysed (Oscarsson et al., 2022). VALU is a recurrent exit poll conducted during parliamentary elections, European Parliament elections and referendums, having taken place 17 times since 1991. The 2022 exit poll is based on survey responses from 11,160 voters at 105 polling stations and 55 early voting stations. To assess the general importance of EU for voters, descriptive statistics are reported where the EU is compared with other issues. To further analyse the extent to which EU played a role in the party choice, multinomial logistic regression models are fitted where I control for a number of standard sociodemographic and attitudinal variables such as trust in politicians, subjective placement on ideological left–right scale, gender, educational level and church attendance. I also control for the importance of the very same issues compared to in the descriptive analysis. To assess the significance of EU-related issues during the election campaign, an analysis was conducted on the election manifestos of the eight parliamentary parties. This analysis provides a reasonable indication of the parties' investment of time and focus on European matters, although it may not present the complete picture. The overall assessment of the election manifestos resonates well with earlier conclusions about the relative absence of EU in Swedish politics. Whilst all parties mention the EU or Europe in their manifestos, these references are generally peripheral. Moreover, some of the parties hardly mention EU or Europe at all (see Table 1). In the coded instances, references to the term ‘EU’ are slightly more prevalent than references to ‘Europe’. Generally, however, these terms are used almost interchangeably. To put it differently, in most cases, although not always, Swedish parties implicitly refer to the EU when discussing Europe in their election manifestos. The most common use of EU/Europe references is for descriptive purposes. These references include general statements describing the current situation in various aspects and instances where the EU/Europe is compared with other entities. of the general statements the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its on European Whilst the general mentions of the upcoming Swedish EU presidency have been presented to its importance by Swedish parties. The that the presidency from Swedish parties when discussing their in the the mention the upcoming Swedish presidency in their manifesto, that it is that Sweden its should and for common European such as and also for issues that are particularly important for such as the conditions for the references to the EU/Europe for particularly amongst parties at that how Sweden than many other European common issue is the of with Sweden as than For example, the Christian Democrats that has the in the EU, the number of in the the state that to the of Europe in terms of the number of indirectly at the Social Democrats also that Sweden has number of in has in the and is in Europe where has grown the Additionally, some are to a party's in domestic politics. The and the to the to the EU both the and the Sweden Democrats to with the level to EU Whilst it is the most prevalent in the manifestos, there are few positive proposals, that regarding the actions the parties would like to at the European level. Moreover, only of eight parties mention they would like to within the EU's of these are relatively and general For example, the Social Democrats to an EU that up for common However, there are also more proposals, related to and The Liberals, amongst other things, to a European and European and to the of the to increase the number of more The to the of in the and significantly in the EU. In addition to manifestos also include negative proposals, that about they the EU not to The state that is important that the EU's is not into Swedish to negative for as a or the Sweden Democrats do to that Sweden the EU on the the least common theme various statements about parties' general attitude towards the EU. of these statements are positive and upon various aspects of European a for European The state that more not less the conclude that EU, with is most important statements aspects of the EU, particularly its importance in The that EU's for is the most and the that EU is the most important the Social Democrats are that EU co-operation is the for many of most challenging not least and the of and Swedish parties use the term rather than Although one should not conclusions from this it is that this can be by the fact that the term a and more general of a that may not be Despite public support for Swedish amongst the more when it to further European integration (Blombäck and Karv, 2023; et al., parties also include negative statements about the EU. The Moderates, in a more general state that EU should decisions they that should be at the possible level, as to the as The slightly more on aspects of European co-operation and that is countries are and the EU is also co-operation with and the and consider only parliamentary party consistently and to Swedish In the VALU exit were to the importance of various issues for their choice of party in the election using a The analysis of the data indicates that EU was significant for many voters. of the indicated that the importance of the EU for their party choice was or only stated that the EU had a and The parties with the for the importance of the EU were the Sweden Democrats the and the the and the had the for the importance of the EU. However, when these with the of voters on other a different picture In fact, when other issues as in the EU is as the least important other issue is important by less than of the more and as in importance than the combined of the EU as or et The of the EU in the of the voters is further emphasized in the results of the multinomial logistic regression analysis in (see also Table The the of regarding the importance of the EU on their to vote for the eight different parties. It is from the relatively for all parties that the importance to the EU has influence on party choice. The positive in are for the and the where a shift from the level to the level of EU importance is with an increase in the to vote for the The and the Christian Democrats the similar change in importance of the EU for these parties is to a decrease of in voting Although the of may significant for parties that only of the vote in the election, it is important to that these are when a more shift of just one on the EU importance the overall from the analysis of the exit poll data is that voters, like political parties, relatively to the in Given the absence of EU in both the election and amongst the of voters, one might expect it also to be a very peripheral issue during the government formation this seems to be the Whilst EU is multiple times in both the Tidö agreement and the government there are very few instances of explicit on the government to at the European level. the of both the agreement and the declaration with domestic some of these refer to EU for purposes. majority of these are related to immigration and how different of the and integration should be in with other European The government declaration for example, that on should be to not be more than is an for a state to EU the few explicit that the government to at the European level, it can be that they to for the EU to and also the of or in general, for third countries that do not on issues of and of their other are relatively general such as Sweden Europe can be to on Russian and that with should be in a common European with a Whilst the relative absence of EU in the related to government formation suggests a issue, there is some to the general picture. The government declaration explicitly to the upcoming presidency as one of three central in and policy during the upcoming membership and Ukraine the other Furthermore, it is that EU-related issues had some importance in the government between the centre-right parties and the Sweden Democrats. stated in the Tidö agreement, the Sweden Democrats that they should be involved in process concerning EU matters that affect the issues by the agreement and that they should be about the of the government's to the of EU matters in the Despite the favourable conditions that could have led to a role for the EU in the 2022 election in it is that the issue peripheral for both Swedish parties and voters. though public support for the EU has increased and the were about to over the presidency of the union, the issue to be from the political agenda. And the of membership not receive the in the election that could have been expected (Aylott and Bolin, it is possible that to some the EU from the agenda. there is limited for on co-operation in the Swedish political This underscores the of the Swedish election debate to important factors such as the significant of EU into Swedish politics and to voters to a more comprehensive and substantial of when Swedish of Whilst other have prominent conflict regarding policies (Hutter and Grande, the debate to be in Sweden. This with previous studies, that political parties, in several to their function of as a between and political in this (Liljeqvist and Blomgren, Although this study not directly survey the salience of the EU in the other research suggests that the media also interest in the EU. analysis of coverage during the 2022 election that the EU was Johansson and 2023, p. it is important to approach the general with some The analysis has on the of statements explicitly the EU or Europe have been in the analysis of both the manifestos and the related to government formation. the of EU on national there may be instances where statements in these are implicitly related to the EU, even if not explicitly Additionally, the of the EU's presence has been limited to events of this For party election manifestos are upon to the start of the election the analysis has not EU-related during the that were not explicitly in the party manifestos. issue, for example, that some debate was not from the was the in light of in the election campaign, for Sweden to from the EU's and for 2022). however, the role to the EU in the manifestos seems to also for the election agenda. It is also the Swedish presidency during the first half of 2023 significantly the EU on the political agenda. The most was by an article by the of the Sweden Democrats, which was by many as a towards their previous a 2023). The debate followed for or Swedish EU membership rather than a discussion about the stance Sweden should in with other it appears that the the extent to which the Sweden Democrats' more stance influence government In a the analysis conducted in this study suggests that the domestic political debate on EU policy in Sweden to be the European Parliament elections in previous indicate that the in EU-related during these elections is and the political to domestic issues. Moreover, it is to identify could about a significant change in the on European an the and the of the EU presidency were not to a debate about EU then it is reasonable to expect that EU policy a important political in the The would like to and for on earlier of this