Oil Shocks, External Adjustment, and Country Portfolio
研究两种不同时机的石油收入冲击（石油发现新闻冲击和油价变化带来的当期收入冲击）如何影响国家的外部调整，发现净国外资产在两种冲击下呈现不同的动态路径，调整主要通过经常账户实现，但估值效应部分稳定了石油收入冲击的影响。
Abstract This study examines the intertemporal nature of countries’ external adjustment by using two oil income shocks with different timings: giant oil discovery news shocks and contemporaneous oil revenue shocks from international oil price changes. Empirical estimates using a large panel of countries support the intertemporal theory. Net foreign assets hike immediately upon oil revenue shocks, but decline for the first 5 years after oil discoveries and rebound subsequently. These adjustments are largely through the current account but partially stabilized by valuation effects for oil revenue shocks. Oil discoveries attract FDI inflows, while oil revenue shocks increase foreign debt assets holdings.