Labor Market and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Latin America amid COVID: The Role of Digital-Adoption Policies
研究降低企业数字采纳成本的政策如何影响拉丁美洲劳动力市场和经济复苏，以墨西哥为例，发现该政策能促进GDP、就业和劳动收入恢复，但长期会减少总就业并扩大正规与非正规收入差距。
Abstract This paper analyzes how a policy that lowers firm digital-adoption costs shapes the labor-market and economic recovery from COVID-19 in Latin America (LA) using a framework with firm entry and unemployment, where salaried firms can adopt digital technologies and the employment and firm structure embodies key features of LA economies. Using Mexico as a case study, the model replicates the response of the labor market and output at the onset of the COVID recession and in its aftermath, including the dynamics of labor-force participation and informal employment. A policy-induced permanent reduction in the cost of adopting digital technologies at the trough of the recession bolsters the recovery of GDP, total employment, and labor income, and leads to a larger expansion in the share of formal employment compared to a no-policy scenario. In the long run, the economy exhibits a reduction in total employment but higher levels of GDP and labor income, greater average firm productivity, a larger formal employment share, and a marginally lower unemployment rate. Finally, as a side effect, the policy exacerbates the differential between formal and informal labor income, both as the economy recovers from the COVID recession and in the long run.