从寒冷中走来的货币:资本管制与订单流的信息含量

The currency that came in from the cold: Capital controls and the information content of order flow

Journal of International Money and Finance · 2023
被引 0
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

以冰岛资本管制实施与取消为案例,分析管制对外汇市场微观结构的影响,发现管制导致交易量骤降、订单流信息含量减少且对宏观新闻反应迟钝,而取消后信息含量和反应性显著回升。

Abstract

We analyse how capital controls affect FX microstructure, using as a case study the introduction and subsequent removal of controls in Iceland. We use a VAR of private order flow, Central Bank order flow and EURISK that allows for contemporaneous feedback effects to analyse the impact and information content of trades and find that controls have profound effects. When controls were introduced, volume plummeted, the information content of trading activity declined and became less responsive to macro news. While there was no recovery of trading volume after controls were abolished, the information content and responsiveness of trading activity increased sharply.

外汇管制指令流信息含量冰岛