A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests
提出一个统计框架，量化多事件竞赛中不提供中间奖励、但通过赛程和最终奖励结构提供隐性激励的单个事件的重要性。应用于美国初选和欧洲足球，证明其效用。
Abstract We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through scheduling and the reward structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the framework to primary elections in the US, where earlier elections have greater importance and influence, we show that schedule variations can mitigate the problem of front-loading elections. When applied to European football, we demonstrate the utility and meaningfulness of quantified event importance in relation to the in-match performance of contestants to improve outcome prediction and to provide an early indication of public interest.