Fiscal policy in oil and gas-exporting economies: Good times, bad times and ugly times
研究了30个新兴和发展中能源出口国财政政策对油气收入的周期性反应，发现财政政策总体呈顺周期性，但在高收入下降时中性，低收入上升时顺周期性最强。
We study the cyclicality of fiscal policy to oil and gas revenue in emerging and developing energy-exporting countries. We build a unique oil and gas fiscal revenue database for 30 countries and develop a novel framework to identify various kinds of asymmetry in the response of public expenditure to oil and gas revenue. To explore asymmetries that may occur during revenue cycles, we distinguish between high and low oil and gas revenue regimes, as well as betwee positive and negative revenue shocks. Using an unbalanced panel over the period 2000–2020, we find that fiscal policy is procyclical in general but neutral when confronted with high but declining revenue, possibly influenced by policymakers' optimism view that revenue will quickly recover. Moreover, we find the greatest level of procyclicality when revenue is low but increasing. This situation may follow periods of fiscal tightening where governments face greater social pressure to catch-up with a higher spending. Our results also suggest that financial openness increases procyclicality in low revenue regimes only, and that during these periods IMF programs are associated with expenditure reductions regardless of improvements or deteriorations of oil and gas revenue.