Cross‐border and cross‐commodity volatility spillover effects of Chinese soybean futures
研究了美国与中国大豆期货市场之间，以及中国大豆、豆油和豆粕期货之间的波动溢出效应，发现美国大豆在跨境交易中起主导作用，而中国二号大豆在跨境和跨商品溢出中的作用增强。
Abstract This study examines the volatility spillover between the US and China's soybean futures markets, and between China's soybean, soybean oil, and meal futures markets. A synchronization technique is used to overcome the bias from differences in the closing time of two exchanges. On the basis of BEKK‐GARCH and DCC‐GARCH on the data from January 2010 to April 2023, our results indicate that: First, there is a one‐way spillover from the US to China's No.1 soybean futures and a two‐way spillover between the US and No.2 soybean futures. Second, after 2018, the volatility spillovers of No.1 soybean futures declined, while that of No.2 increased significantly. Third, the dynamic conditional correlations confirmed our results that the spillover between No.2 soybean and soymeal, and between No.2 soybean and soyoil futures increased significantly. Our findings demonstrate the leading role of US soybeans in cross‐border trading and the increasing role of No.2 soybeans in cross‐country and cross‐commodity spillover.