The short- and long-run effects of remote work on U.S. housing markets
研究了2020-2022年远程工作对住房需求和区位需求的变化,发现短期租金和房价显著上涨,但长期租金仅增加1.8个百分点,区位需求变化使租金下降0.3个百分点,对CPI测量城市和初始高房价城市影响更负面。
Remote work has increased the demand for housing and changed the demand for the location of that housing. Because housing supply is heterogeneous across space and more elastic in the long-run, the effects on rents and populations may differ over time. We use the lens of a spatial housing model with heterogeneous housing supply elasticities to identify the housing and location demand changes from 2020–2022, and show that the same shocks will have different effects in the long run. Even though rents and prices increased significantly in the short-run, we estimate that in the long-run, increased housing demand will increase rents by only 1.8 percentage points, and that changing location demand will decrease rents by 0.3 percentage points, with a more negative impact on cities in which CPI is measured and cities that were initially expensive.