The Effectiveness of Ex Ante Real Earnings Yields in Forecasting Stock Market Returns
研究发现1982至2022年间，美国标普500指数的事前实际盈利收益率能显著预测1年、5年和10年后的市场回报，长期回报变动的近一半可由该指标解释。
This empirical research shows that returns on the stock market have been significantly related to their ex ante real earnings yields over the 1982–2022 interval. This theoretically grounded association has existed over 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year horizons. The simple sum of the consensus forecast of the long-term inflation rate and the nominal earnings yield on the S&P 500 Index (measured as the highest past annual earnings reported on that stock market index divided by its current price level) is found to predict nearly half of the variation in long-term returns on that index of blue-chip equities.