Crowdsourced Forecasts and the Market Reaction to Earnings Announcement News
研究众包预测是否帮助投资者识别分析师预测偏差，发现众包覆盖降低了预测偏差的误定价和盈余公告溢价，管理者也会调整行为以迎合众包基准。
ABSTRACT This study examines whether crowdsourced forecasts of earnings and revenues help investors unravel bias in earnings announcement news, which is commonly derived from analyst forecasts. Our results suggest that investors, on average, understand and price the predictive signals reflected in crowdsourced forecasts about the bias in analyst-based earnings and revenue surprises. Using the staggered addition of firms to the Estimize platform, we find that crowdsourced coverage is associated with reductions in the mispricing of forecast bias and declines in earnings announcement premia. We further find some evidence that managers use income-increasing accruals to meet the crowdsourced forecast benchmark and that they respond to crowdsourced coverage through increased downward earnings and revenue guidance. Overall, we conclude that user-generated content on crowdsourced financial information platforms helps investors discount biases in traditional equity research and thereby better process the news in earnings announcements. JEL Classifications: G14; G20; M41.