Optimal Dynamic Control of an Epidemic
研究如何最优地实施社交距离措施以最小化传染病传播，发现最优政策可能先加强后减弱社交距离，且过早实施可能增加死亡人数。
Optimal Dynamic Control of an Epidemic We analyze how to optimally engage in social distancing in order to minimize the spread of an infectious disease. We identify conditions under which any optimal policy first engages in increasingly more social distancing and subsequently decreases its intensity. We show that an optimal policy might substantially delay measures that decrease the transmission rate to create herd immunity and that engaging in social distancing suboptimally early can increase the number of fatalities. Finally, we find that optimal social distancing can be an effective measure to reduce the death rate of a disease.