Analysts’ Earnings per Share Forecasts: The Effects of Forecast Uncertainty and Forecast Precision on Investor Judgements
通过控制实验，研究了预测不确定性和预测精度如何共同影响投资者对预测可靠性的判断，发现预测精度会加剧不确定性对可靠性判断的负面影响，且投资者可能未意识到这种影响。
This study uses controlled experiments to investigate the joint effects of forecast uncertainty and forecast precision on investor judgements. It finds that forecast precision moderates the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ forecast reliability judgements such that the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ judgements of forecast reliability are more negative when an analyst's point earnings per share (EPS) forecast is rounded than when it is precise. In addition, the relationship between forecast precision and investors’ judgements of forecast reliability is mediated by investors’ perceptions of forecast attributes. The evidence also suggests that while forecast uncertainty exerts a negative effect on investment judgements, forecast precision does not play a role in mitigating these negative effects. Using a supplementary within‐participants experiment, the study further finds that investors may not be consciously aware of how forecast precision influences their judgements of forecast reliability.