Back to the Roots: Three Reflections on Financial Analysis
回归金融分析的基础，探讨三个基本问题：更多信息是否改善决策质量、贝叶斯更新规则是否适用于金融市场配置决策、以及为何高技能分析师可能表现不如资质平庸的同事。文章主张将金融市场视为复杂适应系统，并利用基于主体的建模作为捕捉复杂性的启发式方法。
Although financial analysis is the core pillar for financial theory, it is often not addressed seriously in finance textbooks anymore. It is just assumed that reliable data like expected returns have been provided somehow. This article goes back to the roots of financial analysis and tries to give answers to three basic questions: (1) Does getting more information actually improve the quality of financial decisions? (2) Should the Bayesian updating rule be applied in making allocative decisions in financial markets? (3) If financial analysis is done, why might a highly skilled analyst perform less well than a rather unqualified colleague? The article advocates considering financial markets as complex adaptive systems and making use of agent-based modeling as the most powerful heuristic in order to capture complexity.