FBBVA Lecture 2023. The Importance of Modeling Income Taxes over Time: U.S. Reforms and Outcomes
梳理了1960年代以来美国联邦所得税改革史，利用收入动态面板数据计算1969-2016年有效税率，发现税制多变且群体间差异大，并通过动态模型证明不同税制显著影响劳动和储蓄行为。
Abstract The structure of taxes and their burden have undergone large and frequent changes over time. We provide a brief history of U.S. federal income tax reform since the 1960s, calculate effective federal income tax rates for each wave of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and discuss how effective taxation changed from 1969 to 2016. We show that most tax regimes are short-lived and that the variation in taxes over time and across groups is large. We also use an estimated dynamic model of couples and singles to show that the various tax regimes that we estimate imply very different labor market and saving behavior. These findings stress the importance of studying and modeling tax changes over time and across groups.