The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth, and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the U.K.
利用英国宏观经济数据，估计了一个包含可贸易和不可贸易部门的小型开放经济模型，发现脱欧公投可被解读为可贸易部门未来生产率增长下降的信号，短期内可贸易部门扩张而不可贸易部门收缩，总产出、消费和投资增长放缓。
Abstract The U.K. economy experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. To understand these adjustments, this paper presents empirical facts using novel U.K. macroeconomic data and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors. We demonstrate that the referendum outcome can be interpreted as news about a future decline in productivity growth in the tradable sector. An immediate fall in the relative price of non-tradable goods induces a temporary “sweet spot” for tradable producers. Economic activity in the tradable sector expands in the short run, while the non-tradable sector contracts. Aggregate output, consumption, and investment growth decelerate.