Real Interest Rates and Population Growth across Generations
用12个国家1820年以来的面板数据，区分出生盈余和净移民对人口增长的影响，发现出生盈余与实际利率有显著相关，为人口与利率关系提供了实证支持。
Abstract This paper empirically examines the correlation between population growth and real interest rates. Although this correlation is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous. Demographic interest rate theories are typically based on long‐term relationships across generations. Accordingly, key population trends appear often only across decades, if not centuries, worth of data. To capture these trends, we distinguish between population growth resulting from a birth surplus and net migration. Within a panel covering 12 countries and the years since 1820, we find robust evidence that the birth surplus is significantly correlated with the real interest rate.