A Two-Stage Method for Strategy-Oriented Dynamic Project Portfolio Selection Considering Project Substitution
提出两阶段方法解决动态项目组合选择问题，第一阶段确定战略目标与初始组合，第二阶段构建模型同时处理新项目选择与现有项目的维持、更新、替代和放弃，案例表明平衡新旧项目调整并考虑项目替代有助于实现战略目标并降低成本。
Considering the dynamic adjustment of the project portfolio is an important measure to ensure the realization of strategic objectives. The existing research only analyzes the role of strategic objectives in new project selection but does not analyze the impact on the existing project adjustments. In this article, we analyze the relationship between the dynamic adjustment of project portfolio and strategic objectives. On this basis, a two-stage method is adopted to solve the dynamic project portfolio selection problem (DPPSP). In the first stage, we identify the strategic objectives and give the initial project portfolio. In the second stage, a strategy-oriented dynamic project portfolio selection model, including project maintaining, updating, substitution, giving up of the existing projects, and the selection of new projects, is proposed. By comparing the proposed model in different scenarios, the influence and advantage of considering project substitution in strategy-oriented DPPSPs are discussed. The case analysis shows that balancing the relationship between new project selection and existing project adjustment is more conducive for enterprises to the realization of strategic objectives, and considering project substitution in the adjustment process of the existing projects is helpful to avoid unnecessary costs.