Euro area inflation linked debt: An evaluation
研究了2014-2022年欧元区四国通胀挂钩债券对债务负担的影响，发现若无此类债券，德法西债务负担减轻但意大利加重，调整发行时机可缓解财政压力。
How would the fiscal burden of Euro area (EA) countries have evolved without the issuance of inflation linked bonds (ILBs)? Could debt management through ILBs have decreased their sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio? By exploiting a new dataset on ILBs and the market value of debt in Germany, France, Italy and Spain in 2014-2022, I calculate the holding period return for investors in both nominal and real debt. Based on the government budget constraint, I conduct simulations that demonstrate the significant first-order effects of debt structure choices. Without ILBs the fiscal burden of the largest EA economies would have decreased by around 1% of GDP but in the case of Italy, it would have increased. Timing was also a relevant factor. Germany effectively controlled the cost of funds by managing its share of real debt, while Spain increased it by issuing ILBs when it was expensive Slight ILB share adjustments could have alleviated their fiscal burden: Germany by 0.9%, France by 3%, Italy by 7%, and Spain by 1.8%.