Macroprudential Policy, Mortgage Cycles, and Distributional Effects: Evidence from the United Kingdom
利用英国抵押贷款登记数据，分析2014年对高贷款收入比抵押贷款的限制如何影响不同收入群体的贷款可得性、房价和违约率，发现低收入借款人受到更大冲击。
Abstract We analyze the distributional effects of macroprudential policy on mortgage cycles by exploiting the U.K. mortgage register and a 2014 15% limit imposed on lenders’ high loan-to-income (LTI) mortgages. Constrained lenders issue fewer and more expensive high-LTI mortgages, with stronger effects on low-income borrowers. Unconstrained lenders strongly substitute high-LTI loans in local areas with higher constrained lender presence, but not high-LTI loans to low-income borrowers—consistent with adverse selection problems—implying lower overall credit to low-income borrowers. Consistently, policy-affected areas experience lower house price growth postregulation and, following the Brexit referendum (negative aggregate shock), better house price growth and lower mortgage defaults for low-income borrowers.