Goodbye, Mr. Portugal: Fiscal crisis, constitutional revolution, and the independence of Brazil (1808–22)
本文重新解读巴西独立，将其政治解放过程与19世纪初葡萄牙帝国的财政危机联系起来，用定量证据说明巴西的宫廷和军队开支高于以往文献，政府靠增发纸币融资，导致通胀和生活水平下降，加剧了不满。
Abstract This article provides a new interpretation of Brazil's independence that relates the process of political emancipation to the Portuguese empire's fiscal crisis at the beginning of the nineteenth century. We discuss the origins and impact of the fiscal crisis that followed the Napoleonic invasion of Portugal in 1807 and the transfer of the government to Rio de Janeiro. Quantitative evidence shows that expenditures with the palace and the army in Brazil were higher than those discussed in the previous literature. Moreover, the government was only able to finance itself by increasing loans via paper money issuances from the Bank of Brazil. Real wages show that the inflationary policy in the 1810s led to a rapid decline in living standards, fuelling dissatisfaction with the government. Our findings are consistent with views expressed in contemporary official correspondence and parliamentary debates.