Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates
利用法国两轮选举的断点回归设计，发现首轮排名第一的候选人更可能继续参选并获胜，排名第二与第三、第三与第四之间的效应同样显著，该效应源于政党协调、选民协调和从众心理，并在19个国家得到验证。
Candidates' placements in polls and past elections can be powerful coordination devices for parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French two-round elections, we show that candidates who place first in the first round are more likely to stay in the race and win than those who placed second. These effects are even larger for ranking second versus third, and also present for third versus fourth. They stem from allied parties agreeing on which candidate should drop out, voters coordinating their choice, and the bandwagon effect of wanting to vote for the winner. We find similar results across 19 other countries.