Disentangling COVID-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks
利用44国日度面板数据，通过贝叶斯结构向量自回归模型，发现疫情和防控政策冲击对经济流动性、发病率和死亡率有持续一至两个月的大幅影响，解释了全球20%-60%的变异。
We study the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, economic mobility, and containment policy. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through traditional and narrative sign restrictions. We find that incidence shocks and containment shocks have large and persistent effects on mobility, morbidity, and mortality that last for one to two months. These shocks are the main drivers of the pandemic, explaining between 20 and 60 percent of the average and historical variability in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. The policy trade-off associated to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 1 pp less economic mobility per day for 8 percent fewer deaths after 3 months.