Trade Policies and Fiscal Devaluations
研究了财政贬值（提高进口关税和出口补贴，或提高增值税和工资补贴）在固定汇率下的刺激效果，发现若预期政策逆转且税负转嫁大，增值税加工资补贴方案会收缩经济，而关税加出口补贴方案仅小幅提振。
Fiscal devaluations—an increase in import tariffs and export subsidies (IX) or an increase in value-added taxes and payroll subsidies (VP)—have been shown to provide as much stimulus under fixed exchange rates as a currency devaluation. We find that if agents expect policies to be reversed and the tax pass-through is large, VP is contractionary and IX provides a modest boost. In our medium-scale DSGE model, both features are crucial in accounting for Germany’s underperformance in response to VP in 2007. These findings cast doubt on fiscal devaluations as a cyclical stabilization tool when monetary policy is constrained.