Technology Shocks and Predictable Minsky Cycles
研究了新技术在次要部门的发展如何通过信贷市场引发可预测的繁荣-萧条周期，与明斯基的金融周期理论一致，为理解经济危机提供了新视角。
Abstract Big technological improvements in a new, secondary sector lead to a period of excitement about the future prospects of the overall economy, generating boom-bust dynamics propagating through credit markets. Increased future capital prices relax collateral constraints today, leading to a boom before the realisation of the shock. But reallocation of capital toward the secondary sector when the shock hits leads to a bust going forward. These cycles are perfectly foreseen in our model, making them markedly different from the typical narrative about unexpected financial shocks used to explain crises. Our dynamics obtain without a departure from rational expectations. In fact, these cycles echo Minsky’s original narrative for financial cycles, according to which ‘financial trauma occur [sic] as normal functioning events in a capitalistic economy’ (Minsky, 1980, p. 21).