Agricultural investment behaviour and contingency: Experimental evidence from Uganda
通过乌干达贫困农民的实验，发现近期经历的偶然性会影响投资决策：有偶然性时投资增加，无偶然性时投资减少，这为促进农业投资的政策提供了新思路。
Underinvestment in agriculture – a major cause of rural poverty – may be due to difficulties in detecting ‘contingency’, defined as the influence one may exert on the outcome of a decision-making situation. Recently experienced contingency may create a mismatch between perceived and actual contingency in an investment decision-making situation, leading to sub-optimal investment behaviour. To test this, we use an experiment with poor farmers in Uganda used to low levels of contingency, as many factors (e.g., the weather, pests, price fluctuations) obscure the link between farm investment and outcomes. We find that in situations in which some contingency is present, investment levels respond positively to recently experienced contingency. In situations in which no contingency is present (‘non-contingency’), investment responds negatively to recently experienced non-contingency. The findings that perceived contingency influences investment behaviour, and perceived contingency can be readily changed, may inform new behavioural policies to promote agricultural investment.