How important is tourism for growth?
利用108个国家1996-2017年面板数据，通过分位数回归发现，低增长国家旅游业对经济增长的促进作用更大，发达国家效应是发展中国家的两倍，但旅游专业化仅对发达国家高增长分位有益，对发展中国家则不利。
Abstract We revisit the tourism‐led growth hypothesis by utilising a panel set of 108 countries over the period 1996–2017. We quantify the effects of tourism on the entire conditional distribution of economic growth for both relatively poor and relatively rich countries within a panel quantile regression framework. We address the unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity concerns. We reveal that the lower the conditional growth rate a country experiences the more important is tourism development for the conditional growth distribution for both developing and developed countries. The size of the effect in developed countries is twice as high as in developing ones. On the other hand, tourism specialisation is beneficial only at higher quantiles of the conditional growth distribution and only for developed countries. On the contrary, it brings about an undesirable effect in developing countries. Finally, we examine the impact of a reduction in tourism activity on economic growth due to an exogenous shock (i.e., COVID‐19). Simulation analysis based on the quantile regression estimates shows that countries facing relatively low growth rates conditionally to the growth distribution are affected the most. Policymakers may consider the importance of tourism activity in the growth process and formulate strategies that align with the growth experience of each country.