How Differently Do Farms Respond to Agri-environmental Policies? A Probabilistic Machine-Learning Approach
利用贝叶斯加性回归树算法，分析2015-2018年意大利农场面板数据，发现不同农场对欧盟农业环境政策的反应存在显著差异，为政策改进提供依据。
<h3>Abstract</h3> This study evaluates to what extent farmers respond heterogeneously to the agri-environmental policies implemented within the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Our identification and estimation strategy combines a theory-driven research design formalizing all possible sources of heterogeneity with a Bayesian additive regression trees algorithm. Results from a 2015-2018 panel of Italian farms show that the responsiveness to these policies may differ substantially across farms and farm groups. This suggests room for improvement in the implementation of these policies. We also argue that the specific features of the CAP call for a careful implementation of these empirical techniques.