Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework
证明诊断性预期（一种基于行为推断的预期形成模型）能有效融入新凯恩斯框架，产生内生外推效应，放大名义摩擦下的经济波动，并利用贝叶斯估计和共识预测数据验证了该模型的实证有效性。
Abstract Diagnostic expectations constitute a realistic behavioural model of inference. This paper shows that this approach to expectation formation can be productively integrated into the New Keynesian framework. Diagnostic expectations generate endogenous extrapolation in general equilibrium. We show that diagnostic expectations generate extra amplification in the presence of nominal frictions; a fall in aggregate supply generates a Keynesian recession; fiscal policy is more effective at stimulating the economy. We perform Bayesian estimation of a rich medium-scale model that incorporates consensus forecast data. Our estimate of the diagnosticity parameter is in line with previous studies. Moreover, we find empirical evidence in favour of the diagnostic model. Diagnostic expectations offer new propagation mechanisms to explain fluctuations.