Stress Testing in a World of Compound Risks and Polycrises
提出用多重危机概念重新设计压力测试，扩大威胁范围至地缘政治和技术事件，强调跨学科团队设计场景，并以银行、石油和汽车行业为例说明。
Stress testing has become the tool of choice in banking for risk managers and regulators alike, and it is used widely as a way to assess resilience to severely adverse events. Yet, even the most creative risk manager would have been challenged to design a scenario that would have adequately captured the plethora of shocks that manifested from early 2020 to April 2023. The authors make use of the polycrisis concept to motivate a rethinking of stress test design. A broadening of the scope of threats to include geopolitics and a wide range of technology-related events are among the aspects that most require attention, with emphasis on the possibility of co-occurrence. Using the polycrisis effect calls for an interdisciplinary team of scenario designers to comprehensively cover the threat landscape facing firms, the capability for rapid evaluation of many scenarios, models that map scenarios to impacts on company financials that err on the side of being simple and robust, and an increased emphasis on nonfinancial risks and shocks. The authors design a broad polyscenario with some tailoring to three industries—banking, oil, and auto—by way of illustration.