Can central banks be heard over the sound of gunfire?
研究乌克兰央行在俄乌战争期间的外汇市场沟通效果，发现其公告显著影响黑市汇率溢价，且对卖方影响最大。
Abstract In this study, we examined the effectiveness of central bank communications during times of significant adverse shocks. Specifically, we examined how the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) regulated foreign exchange (FX) markets during the Russo‐Ukrainian War in 2022. Data collected from both the black and authorized FX markets suggested that the content of the NBU's announcements significantly impacted FX market agents. Announcements aimed at maintaining a fixed (floating) FX rate prompted an increase (decrease) in the black market premium in cash transactions. Moreover, the NBU's announcements influenced the sale side of foreign currency more than any other aspect, an area where the black market FX traders held near monopolistic power.