Revisiting the Origins of Business Cycles With the Size-Variance Relationship
量化了大型企业波动性较小(规模-方差关系)对颗粒渠道的影响,发现该渠道可解释美国15%的总波动,为颗粒性作用提供了下限。
Abstract This paper quantifies the importance of the granular channel for the U.S. economy by taking into account that large firms are less volatile than small firms, a feature also known as the size-variance relationship. Intuitively, the largest firms, whose shocks drive granularity, are the least volatile; thus, their influence on aggregates is mitigated. By imposing estimates from the universe of employers for the size-variance relationship in a simple, quantitative framework, I find that the granular hypothesis can rationalize 15% of U.S. aggregate fluctuations, establishing a lower bound for the role of granularity in the U.S. economy.