Innovation Under Ambiguity and Risk
将创新投资视为实物期权，研究模糊性（奈特不确定性）和风险（波动性）对创新决策的影响，发现模糊性显著抑制研发、专利和引用，而风险对研发有正向作用但对专利和引用为负向。
Abstract We view innovation investments as real options and explore the implications of risk (volatility) as well as a newly defined outcome independent measure of ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) for innovation decisions. The empirical analysis uses stock returns to compute an implementable measure of ambiguity. We also control for risk and other determinants of innovation. We find a consistently significant negative effect of ambiguity on R&D, patents, and citations, as predicted. The effect of risk on R&D is positive and significant, but the corresponding effect on patents and citations is negative and significant. Ambiguity matters more for high-tech firms, consistent with intuition.