The bright side of the planning fallacy in distribution channels
研究了上游制造商和下游零售商都进行需求提升投资时，规划谬误（乐观偏差导致低估投资成本）反而能带来制造商、零售商和消费者三方共赢，甚至使分散渠道总利润超过集中渠道。
The planning fallacy describes the tendency of people to underestimate the costs and to overestimate the benefits of investments. It is typically associated with cost overruns and decreased performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that in a simple distribution channel with an upstream manufacturer and a downstream retailer that both make demand-enhancing investments, there is a bright side of the planning fallacy: managerial optimism bias that results in underestimated investment costs can in fact lead to a win-win outcome which makes the manufacturer, the retailer, and consumers better off than without bias. Moreover, the total profit of the decentralized distribution channel can be even higher than the centralized channel’s profit. We find that our results are robust to changes in the sequencing of decisions and continue to hold under generalized Nash bargaining over the wholesale price as well as under upstream or downstream competition or consumer demand uncertainty.