The lasting impact of external shocks on political opinions and populist voting
利用选举调查与地理数据，研究结构改革和移民改革两种外部冲击如何影响新西兰优先党的兴起与长期成功，并改变选民的政治态度和政策偏好。
Abstract We use electoral survey data linked to disaggregated geographical data to examine the impact that two external shocks had on the initial development and long‐term success of New Zealand First (NZF), one of the oldest populist parties in the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, as well as their short and long‐run impact on voting and political opinions. We find that people exposed to both structural and immigration reforms were more likely to initially vote for NZF and permanently changed their political attitudes and policy preferences. Exposure to these shocks plays an important role in explaining the rise and continued success of populism in New Zealand.