Revealing latent trajectories of (intended) train travel during and after COVID-19
基于荷兰国家铁路运营商在疫情后八个时间点的大规模调查数据，用潜在类别轨迹模型揭示了六种不同的火车使用恢复路径，发现高学历通勤者和混合目的旅客的行为变化可能是结构性的。
This study investigates whether the decline in public transit ridership is a temporary phenomenon or indicative of a structural shift in travel patterns and attitudes. We estimate a latent class trajectory model using data from a comprehensive and large-scale survey administered by the Dutch national train operator conducted at eight different points in time after the onset of the pandemic. Six latent trajectories in train use and stated future intentions to use the train are revealed, showing different ‘recovery’ pathways. Whereas low-educated frequent commuters travel almost as much as before, highly educated frequent commuters and mixed-purpose travellers still travel much less, even in the last wave when all restrictions are lifted. The results indicate that travellers belonging to these classes have structurally changed their behaviour. The shift to working from home is more pronounced than the shift to private car use.